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I know, I know… it’s not yet even June, and the 84th Academy Awards ceremony is still nine months (and one day) away, but I can’t help myself… my thoughts are already turning to the coming Oscar race! Indeed, I have spent the last several weeks pouring through mountains of material and pestering dozens of knowledgable sources to try to get a sense of the the landscape that awaits us. Now, in order to provide myself and my readers with something fun to think and debate about, I have decided to share my first projections of the 2011 awards season. Needless to say, they are based on limited information and will be amended regularly over the months to come… but, if my initial projections of last year’s Oscar race (which I posted on June 23rd) are any indication, they may not prove to be all that far off, after all. Time will tell. In the meantime, I hope that you will use the comments section at the bottom of this post to share your take on what I have forecasted, as well as any errors or omissions that you believe I have made. Enjoy…

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
“J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 12/14, ?, ?)
“The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 12/16, R, trailer)
“War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, ?)
“The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, ?)
“Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, ?)
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, ?)
“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, ?, ?)
“Young Adult” (Paramount, ?/?, ?, ?)
“The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Major Threats
“Contagion” (Warner Brothers, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Hugo Cabret” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, ?)
“The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, trailer)
“Martha Marcy May Marlene” (Fox Searchlight, 10/7, ?, trailer)
“The Help” (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
“We Bought a Zoo” (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)
“Take Shelter” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/7, ?, ?)
“Moneyball” (Columbia, 9/23, ?, ?)
“Super 8” (Paramount, 6/10, ?, trailer)
“The Tree of Life” (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
“Coriolanus” (The Weinstein Company, 11/?, ?, ?)
“The Wettest County in the World” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Universal, ?/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
“The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
“We Need to Talk About Kevin” (Oscilloscope, ?/?, ?, ?)
“50/50” (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
“The Rum Diary” (FilmDistrict, 10/28, ?, ?)
“The Skin I Live In” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, trailer)
“One Day” (Focus Features, 8/19, PG-13, trailer)
“Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
“Melancholia” (Magnolia, 11/4, ?, trailer)
“The Way” (Icon Entertainment, 9/30, ?, ?)
“Beginners” (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer)
“Rango” (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
“Win Win” (Fox Searchlight, 3/18, R, trailer)
“A Better Life” (Summit, 6/24, PG-13, trailer)
“In the Land of Blood and Honey” (FilmDistrict, 12/23, ?, ?)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
“Albert Nobbs” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
“A Dangerous Method” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
“On the Road” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
“The Promised Land” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Wuthering Heights” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Clint Eastwood (“J. Edgar”)
Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”)
Steven Spielberg (“War Horse”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Major Threats
David Fincher (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Stephen Daldry (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Drake Doremus (“Like Crazy”)
Jason Reitman (“Young Adult”)
Phyllida Lloyd (“The Iron Lady”)
Steven Soderbergh (“Contagion”)
Martin Scorsese (“Hugo Cabret”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Cameron Crowe (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Bennett Miller (“Moneyball”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Possibilities
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
John Hillcoat (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Tomas Alfredson (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Adventures of Tintin”)
Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Jonathan Levine (“50/50”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
Lone Scherfig (“One Day”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Gore Verbinski (“Rango”)
Tom McCarthy (“Win Win”)
Chris Weitz (“A Better Life”)
Angelina Jolie (“In the Land of Blood and Honey”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Andrea Arnold (“Wuthering Heights”)
David Cronenberg (“A Dangerous Method”)
Rodrigo Garcia (“Albert Nobbs”)
Walter Salles (“On the Road”)
Michael Winterbottom (“The Promised Land”)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”)
George Clooney (“The Descendants”)
Ryan Gosling (“The Ides of March”)
Anton Yelchin (“Like Crazy”)
Asa Butterfield (“Hugo Cabret”)
Major Threats
Matt Damon (“Contagion”)
Matt Damon (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Christoph Waltz (“Carnage”)
John C. Reilly (“Carnage”)
Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”)
Michael Shannon (“Take Shelter”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
Gary Oldman (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Johnny Depp (“The Rum Diary”)
Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)
Antonio Banderas (“The Skin I Live In”)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“50/50”)
Tom Hardy (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Shia LaBeouf (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Possibilities
Jason Clarke (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Steve Carell (“Crazy, Stupid, Love”)
Sam Shepard (“Blackthorn”)
Martin Sheen (“The Way”)
Daniel Craig (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Brad Pitt (“The Tree of Life”)
Asa Butterfield (“Hugo Cabret”)
Dominic Cooper (“The Devil’s Double”)
Michael Sheen (“Beautiful Boy”)
Eddie Redmayne (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Ewan McGregor (“Beginners”)
Jim Sturgess (“One Day”)
Patrick Wilson (“Young Adult”)
Paul Giamatti (“Win Win”)
James Franco (“Maladies”)
Demian Bichir (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Michael Fassbender (“A Dangerous Method”)
Michael Fassbender (“Shame”)
Colin Firth (“The Promised Land”)
Sean Penn (“This Must Be the Place”)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”)
Felicity Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”)
Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Elizabeth Olsen (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Major Threats
Jodie Foster (“Carnage”)
Kate Winslet (“Carnage”)
Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Sandra Bullock (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Kirsten Dunst (“Melancholia”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Whistleblower”)
Emma Stone (“The Help”)
Anne Hathaway (“One Day”)
Possibilities
Charlotte Gainsbourg (“Melancholia”)
Emily Watson (“Oranges and Sunshine”)
Kristin Scott Thomas (“Sarah’s Key”)
Maria Bello (“Beautiful Boy”)
Michelle Williams (“Take This Waltz”)
Andrea Riseborough (“W.E.”)
Ellen Barkin (“Another Happy Day”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Jane Eyre”)
Helen Mirren (“The Debt”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Keira Knightley (“A Dangerous Method”)
Frances McDormand (“This Must Be the Place”)
Carey Mulligan (“Shame”)
Katie O’Grady (“Rid of Me”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”)
Jim Broadbent (“The Iron Lady”)
Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Guy Pearce (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Patton Oswalt (“Young Adult”)
Major Threats
Ezra Miller (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Tom Hanks (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Thomas Haden Church (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Armie Hammer (“J. Edgar”)
John Hawkes (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Moneyball”)
Possibilities
Ben Kingsley (“Hugo Cabret”)
Jude Law (“Hugo Cabret”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Paul Giamatti (“The Ides of March”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Ides of March”)
Jeffrey Wright (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Bobby Cannavale (“Win Win”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Vincent Cassel (“A Dangerous Method”)
Aaron Johnson (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jonathan Rhys Meyers (“Albert Nobbs”)
Viggo Mortensen (“A Dangerous Method”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Scarlett Johansson (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Emily Watson (“War Horse”)
Judi Dench (“J. Edgar”)
Marisa Tomei (“The Ides of March”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“The Ides of March”)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (“J. Edgar”)
Anna Kendrick (“50/50”)
Vanessa Redgrave (“Coriolanus”)
Robin Wright (“Moneyball”)
Viola Davis (“The Help”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Catherine Keener (“Maladies”)
Jessica Chastain (“Take Shelter”)
Elle Fanning (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Stephanie Szotak (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Charlotte Rampling (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Emily Mortimer (“Hugo Cabret”)
Possibilities
Judi Dench (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Charlotte Rampling (“Melancholia”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Tree of Life”)
Judy Davis (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Chloe Moretz (“Hugo Cabret”)
Shailene Woodley (“The Descendants”)
Amara Miller (“The Descendants”)
Lea Thompson (“J. Edgar”)
Alexandra Roach (“The Iron Lady”)
Melanie Laurent (“Beginners”)
Demi Moore (“Another Happy Day”)
Kathryn Morris (“Moneyball”)
Amy Ryan (“Win Win”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Amy Adams (“On the Road”)
Kirsten Dunst (“On the Road”)
Kristen Stewart (“On the Road”)
Sarah Gadon (“A Dangerous Method”)
Orianna Herrman (“Rid of Me”)
Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Albert Nobbs”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (“The Descendants”)
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (“War Horse”)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (“The Ides of March”)
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Steven Zaillian (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Major Threats
Eric Roth (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (“Moneyball”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Possibilities
John Logan (“Coriolanus”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
David Nicholls (“One Day”)
Eric Eason (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Christopher Hampton (“A Dangerous Method”)
Olivia Hetreed (“Wuthering Heights”)
Jose Rivera (“On the Road”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Dustin Lance Black (“J. Edgar”)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Diablo Cody (“Young Adult”)
Abi Morgan (“The Iron Lady”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Major Threats
Scott Z. Burns (“Contagion”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy Mae Marlene”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Possibilities
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (“Win Win”)
Angelina Jolie (“In the Land of Blood and Honey”)
Sam Levinson (“Another Happy Day”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
John Banville, Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Laurence Coriat (“The Promised Land”)
James Westby (“Rid of Me”)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
“Rango” (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
“Happy Feet 2” (Warner Brothers, 11/18, ?, ?)
“Cars 2” (Disney, 6/24, not yet rated, trailer)
Major Threats
“The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
“Winnie the Pooh” (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
“Arthur Christmas” (Sony, 11/23, ?, trailer)
“Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked” (20th Century Fox, 12/11, ?, ?)
“Kung Fu Panda 2” (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
“Puss in Boots” (DreamWorks, 11/4, ?, trailer)
“Rio” (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
“The Smurfs” (Sony, 7/29, ?, trailer)
“The Lion of Judah” (Animated Family Films, 6/3, ?, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
“The Dreaming Machine” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
“The Rabbi’s Cat” (?, ?/?, ?, trailer)
“Tales of the Night” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
“Magic Trip” (Magnolia, 8/5, ?, trailer)
“Project Nim” (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
“If a Tree Falls” (Oscilloscope, 6/22, ?, trailer)
“The Interrupters” (The Cinema Guild, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Buck” (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
“The Greatest Movie Ever Sold” (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
“How to Die in Oregon” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Hell and Back Again” (New Video, 10/?, ?, ?)
“Page One: Inside the New York Times” (Magnolia, 6/24, ?, trailer)
“Koran by Heart” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
“The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975” (Sundance Selects, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Pearl Jam Twenty” (Abramorama, 9/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
“Life in a Day” (National Geographic, 7/24, ?, ?)
“The Bully Project” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Senna” (Producers Distribution Agency, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Revenge of the Electric Car” (Westmidwest Productions, ?/?, ?, trailer)
“Bobby Fischer Against the World” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
“Being Elmo: A Puppeteer’s Journey” (Submarine Entertainment, ?/?, ?, ?)
“African Cats” (Disney, 4/22, G, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
“Bombay Beach” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

Photo: Leonardo DiCaprio on the set of “J. Edgar.” Credit: JustJared.

Tags: Projections