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Countdown to Oscars

Wednesday, May 25, 2011
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FLASH: SCOTT FEINBERG’S INITIAL FORECAST FOR 2011 ACADEMY AWARDS

I know, I know… it’s not yet even June, and the 84th Academy Awards ceremony is still nine months (and one day) away, but I can’t help myself… my thoughts are already turning to the coming Oscar race! Indeed, I have spent the last several weeks pouring through mountains of material and pestering dozens of knowledgable sources to try to get a sense of the the landscape that awaits us. Now, in order to provide myself and my readers with something fun to think and debate about, I have decided to share my first projections of the 2011 awards season. Needless to say, they are based on limited information and will be amended regularly over the months to come… but, if my initial projections of last year’s Oscar race (which I posted on June 23rd) are any indication, they may not prove to be all that far off, after all. Time will tell. In the meantime, I hope that you will use the comments section at the bottom of this post to share your take on what I have forecasted, as well as any errors or omissions that you believe I have made. Enjoy…

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 12/14, ?, ?)
The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 12/16, R, trailer)
War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, ?)
The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, ?)
Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, ?)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, ?/?, ?, ?)
Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, ?, ?)
Young Adult” (Paramount, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Major Threats
Contagion” (Warner Brothers, ?/?, ?, ?)
Hugo Cabret” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, ?)
The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Martha Marcy May Marlene” (Fox Searchlight, 10/7, ?, trailer)
The Help” (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo” (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)
Take Shelter” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/7, ?, ?)
Moneyball” (Columbia, 9/23, ?, ?)
Super 8” (Paramount, 6/10, ?, trailer)
The Tree of Life” (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
Coriolanus” (The Weinstein Company, 11/?, ?, ?)
The Wettest County in the World” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Universal, ?/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
We Need to Talk About Kevin” (Oscilloscope, ?/?, ?, ?)
50/50” (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
The Rum Diary” (FilmDistrict, 10/28, ?, ?)
The Skin I Live In” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, trailer)
One Day” (Focus Features, 8/19, PG-13, trailer)
Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
Melancholia” (Magnolia, 11/4, ?, trailer)
The Way” (Icon Entertainment, 9/30, ?, ?)
Beginners” (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer)
Rango” (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Win Win” (Fox Searchlight, 3/18, R, trailer)
A Better Life” (Summit, 6/24, PG-13, trailer)
In the Land of Blood and Honey” (FilmDistrict, 12/23, ?, ?)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Albert Nobbs” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
A Dangerous Method” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
On the Road” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Promised Land” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
Wuthering Heights” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”)
Steven Spielberg (“War Horse”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Major Threats
David Fincher (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Stephen Daldry (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Drake Doremus (“Like Crazy”)
Jason Reitman (“Young Adult”)
Phyllida Lloyd (“The Iron Lady”)
Steven Soderbergh (“Contagion”)
Martin Scorsese (“Hugo Cabret”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Cameron Crowe (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Bennett Miller (“Moneyball”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Possibilities
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
John Hillcoat (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Tomas Alfredson (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Adventures of Tintin”)
Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Jonathan Levine (“50/50”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
Lone Scherfig (“One Day”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Gore Verbinski (“Rango”)
Tom McCarthy (“Win Win”)
Chris Weitz (“A Better Life”)
Angelina Jolie (“In the Land of Blood and Honey”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Andrea Arnold (“Wuthering Heights”)
David Cronenberg (“A Dangerous Method”)
Rodrigo Garcia (“Albert Nobbs”)
Walter Salles (“On the Road”)
Michael Winterbottom (“The Promised Land”)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”)
George Clooney (“The Descendants”)
Ryan Gosling (“The Ides of March”)
Anton Yelchin (“Like Crazy”)
Asa Butterfield (“Hugo Cabret”)
Major Threats
Matt Damon (“Contagion”)
Matt Damon (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Christoph Waltz (“Carnage”)
John C. Reilly (“Carnage”)
Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”)
Michael Shannon (“Take Shelter”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
Gary Oldman (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Johnny Depp (“The Rum Diary”)
Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)
Antonio Banderas (“The Skin I Live In”)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“50/50”)
Tom Hardy (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Shia LaBeouf (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Possibilities
Jason Clarke (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Steve Carell (“Crazy, Stupid, Love”)
Sam Shepard (“Blackthorn”)
Martin Sheen (“The Way”)
Daniel Craig (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Brad Pitt (“The Tree of Life”)
Asa Butterfield (“Hugo Cabret”)
Dominic Cooper (“The Devil’s Double”)
Michael Sheen (“Beautiful Boy”)
Eddie Redmayne (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Ewan McGregor (“Beginners”)
Jim Sturgess (“One Day”)
Patrick Wilson (“Young Adult”)
Paul Giamatti (“Win Win”)
James Franco (“Maladies”)
Demian Bichir (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Michael Fassbender (“A Dangerous Method”)
Michael Fassbender (“Shame”)
Colin Firth (“The Promised Land”)
Sean Penn (“This Must Be the Place”)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”)
Felicity Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”)
Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Elizabeth Olsen (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Major Threats
Jodie Foster (“Carnage”)
Kate Winslet (“Carnage”)
Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Sandra Bullock (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Kirsten Dunst (“Melancholia”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Whistleblower”)
Emma Stone (“The Help”)
Anne Hathaway (“One Day”)
Possibilities
Charlotte Gainsbourg (“Melancholia”)
Emily Watson (“Oranges and Sunshine”)
Kristin Scott Thomas (“Sarah’s Key”)
Maria Bello (“Beautiful Boy”)
Michelle Williams (“Take This Waltz”)
Andrea Riseborough (“W.E.”)
Ellen Barkin (“Another Happy Day”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Jane Eyre”)
Helen Mirren (“The Debt”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Keira Knightley (“A Dangerous Method”)
Frances McDormand (“This Must Be the Place”)
Carey Mulligan (“Shame”)
Katie O’Grady (“Rid of Me”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”)
Jim Broadbent (“The Iron Lady”)
Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Guy Pearce (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Patton Oswalt (“Young Adult”)
Major Threats
Ezra Miller (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Tom Hanks (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Thomas Haden Church (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Armie Hammer (“J. Edgar”)
John Hawkes (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Moneyball”)
Possibilities
Ben Kingsley (“Hugo Cabret”)
Jude Law (“Hugo Cabret”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Paul Giamatti (“The Ides of March”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Ides of March”)
Jeffrey Wright (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Bobby Cannavale (“Win Win”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Vincent Cassel (“A Dangerous Method”)
Aaron Johnson (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jonathan Rhys Meyers (“Albert Nobbs”)
Viggo Mortensen (“A Dangerous Method”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Scarlett Johansson (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Emily Watson (“War Horse”)
Judi Dench (“J. Edgar”)
Marisa Tomei (“The Ides of March”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“The Ides of March”)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (“J. Edgar”)
Anna Kendrick (“50/50”)
Vanessa Redgrave (“Coriolanus”)
Robin Wright (“Moneyball”)
Viola Davis (“The Help”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Catherine Keener (“Maladies”)
Jessica Chastain (“Take Shelter”)
Elle Fanning (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Stephanie Szotak (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Charlotte Rampling (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Emily Mortimer (“Hugo Cabret”)
Possibilities
Judi Dench (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Charlotte Rampling (“Melancholia”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Tree of Life”)
Judy Davis (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Chloe Moretz (“Hugo Cabret”)
Shailene Woodley (“The Descendants”)
Amara Miller (“The Descendants”)
Lea Thompson (“J. Edgar”)
Alexandra Roach (“The Iron Lady”)
Melanie Laurent (“Beginners”)
Demi Moore (“Another Happy Day”)
Kathryn Morris (“Moneyball”)
Amy Ryan (“Win Win”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Amy Adams (“On the Road”)
Kirsten Dunst (“On the Road”)
Kristen Stewart (“On the Road”)
Sarah Gadon (“A Dangerous Method”)
Orianna Herrman (“Rid of Me”)
Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Albert Nobbs”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
(“The Descendants”)
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (“War Horse”)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (“The Ides of March”)
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Steven Zaillian (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Major Threats
Eric Roth (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (“Moneyball”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Possibilities
John Logan (“Coriolanus”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
David Nicholls (“One Day”)
Eric Eason (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Christopher Hampton (“A Dangerous Method”)
Olivia Hetreed (“Wuthering Heights”)
Jose Rivera (“On the Road”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Dustin Lance Black (“J. Edgar”)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Diablo Cody (“Young Adult”)
Abi Morgan (“The Iron Lady”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Major Threats
Scott Z. Burns (“Contagion”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy Mae Marlene”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Possibilities
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (“Win Win”)
Angelina Jolie (“In the Land of Blood and Honey”)
Sam Levinson (“Another Happy Day”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
John Banville, Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Laurence Coriat (“The Promised Land”)
James Westby (“Rid of Me”)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Rango” (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2” (Warner Brothers, 11/18, ?, ?)
Cars 2” (Disney, 6/24, not yet rated, trailer)
Major Threats
The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
Winnie the Pooh” (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Arthur Christmas” (Sony, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked” (20th Century Fox, 12/11, ?, ?)
Kung Fu Panda 2” (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Puss in Boots” (DreamWorks, 11/4, ?, trailer)
Rio” (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
The Smurfs” (Sony, 7/29, ?, trailer)
The Lion of Judah” (Animated Family Films, 6/3, ?, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
The Dreaming Machine” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Rabbi’s Cat” (?, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Tales of the Night” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Magic Trip” (Magnolia, 8/5, ?, trailer)
Project Nim” (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
If a Tree Falls” (Oscilloscope, 6/22, ?, trailer)
The Interrupters” (The Cinema Guild, ?/?, ?, ?)
Buck” (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold” (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
How to Die in Oregon” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Hell and Back Again” (New Video, 10/?, ?, ?)
Page One: Inside the New York Times” (Magnolia, 6/24, ?, trailer)
Koran by Heart” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975” (Sundance Selects, ?/?, ?, ?)
Pearl Jam Twenty” (Abramorama, 9/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
Life in a Day” (National Geographic, 7/24, ?, ?)
The Bully Project” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Senna” (Producers Distribution Agency, ?/?, ?, ?)
Revenge of the Electric Car” (Westmidwest Productions, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Bobby Fischer Against the World” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer’s Journey” (Submarine Entertainment, ?/?, ?, ?)
African Cats” (Disney, 4/22, G, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

Photo: Leonardo DiCaprio on the set of “J. Edgar.” Credit: JustJared.

Tags:

  • Talli

    tinker tailor and the wettest county should be front runners for best films. Gary Oldman should be front runner for best actor 

    • nightfall

      Gary Oldman is overdue. I would fully support a campaign for him. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be shut out of all except technical. Super 8 won’t have good reviews thus no chance at an Academy award.

      • daybreak

        Scott why do you think Kristen Stewart, Kirsten Dunst and Amy Adams will get nods for On the Road but not Garrett Hedlund or Sam Riley who are the two main charactors in teh movie?? 

  • Kd

    Amy Adams will be in ONE scene in On the Road and you list her as an Oscar possibility but not Viggo Mortensen who’s in the same scene?  yeah, right.

    • Luvlady345

      Yeah I don’t get those possibility nods for Amy or Kirsten. They’re barely going to be in the movie. I would more expect A Best Actor nod for Sam Riley or Garrett Hedlund, and A Supporting Actress nod for Kristen Stewart. Of course that is if the movie even gets distribution, I’m still really surprised it hasn’t yet.

      • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

        The absence of Kristen was an inadvertent oversight that has now been corrected.

      • nightfall

        Kristen Stewart is the major actress in On the Road. She’s in most of the movie until the last third. Viola Davis was nominated for Doubt in less than ten minutes of screen time. Kirsten and Amy have far lesser parts in On the Road but they might be big scenes.

        • alani

          But they’re BETTER actresses.

          • Gina

            That’s your opinion, but IMO Ms. Stewart is a fine actress and I can’t wait to see OTR.

          • Lane

            I find her acting ok, except in Twilight, but that mau be because she doesn’t feel confortable as the idiotic Bella! From what I’ve heard, she is quite impressive in On The Road…

  • Luvlady345

    Wow. Walter Salles “On the Road” still doesn’t have distribution? hopefully it can sell at the fall festivals. I’m really looking forward to seeing that movie this year.

  • awards

    I didn’t realize A Dangerous Method already had a distributor. last I heard about it, they were screening it around Cannes to the buyers, but there was no news about any company picking it up. 

    • http://www.scottfeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      You’re quite right–I mistakenly read that Universal had recently picked up its domestic distribution rights, when in fact it was the distribution rights for several foreign territories. The chart now reflects this. Thanks.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      It doesn’t–thanks for making me look again, as I now realize that I misread a news release. I thought that it said Universal had bought its domestic distribution rights, when in fact it has only purchased its foreign distribution rights in a select few territories. Now corrected.

  • http://miketarigan.blogspot.com Mikhael Tarigan

    I believe those homeless films will get distributor by the time Telluride or maybe even Venice starts.

    Since I heard the news from Canned, I’m so excited for Wettest Country.

    That Stephen Daldry’s newest film is confusing me. This late year or next year? If it’s this year, his movie and him are safe bet for best pic, director, and adapted screenplay. Trust me. They love him as much they love Mike Leigh.

    That Best Actress category has too many young ladies, doesn’t it? One would get knocked out once Albert Nobbs is picked up. And I also love your bold choice for Anton Yelchin in Best Actor.

  • adog1990

    That looks good, but you forgot Gus Van Sant’s new film Restless and that looks really good. Do you think you can add it while add who do you think should run for Best Original Score to Best Visual Efects?

  • Damien

    I would add the movie “Rampart” in your race…huge buzz is coming up for that..and a great cast. Ben Foster, Robin Wright, Sigourney Weaver, Cynthia Nixon and and and…

  • joe

     George Clooney is not great actor he is only lucky. and I think  rum diary and Hugo carbet Frontrunners in all category
     
     

  • TeinF

    Anton yelchin (frontrunners) for best actor is really a GOOD news; i saw “Like crazy” and he is outstanding is his role. I know he is not so famous as the others but i hope he get a nomination. 

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  • Logan1060

    Matt Damon’s part in Contagion is supporting.

  • MarianL

    Kirsten dunst from “Melancholia” for Best actress. I think she is gonna win

  • Betty_isaac

    I saw RID OF ME at the Tribeca Film Festival and thought it was original, inspirational and well acted.  Katie O’Grady, Orianna Herman and James Westby completely deserve to be recognized for their work.  B. Isaac

  • Michaeltnla

    I do not mean to be mean, but I really don’t get Amy Adams…in any film. Yet it seems she  gets more than her share of Oscar nominations. She may be a lovely person, but who is out there trying to ensure her an eventual Academy Award?

  • MED

    Scott- are these ranked in order of “most likely to win?”

    Thanks…

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Yes–thanks!

  • Gran

    I see under Best Actor you’ve listed Colin Firth “The Promised Land” (as still seeking distribution).  I know he’s been nominated the last two years, but I think you can delete this one as a possibility for 2011, since The Promised Land hasn’t even begun filming.  Last I heard, they were having problems getting funding and I haven’t heard anything recently about it at all.

  • HY

    I would like to see Vanessa Redgrave get some much-deserved love finally. It has been 30+ years since her last win.

  • Talli

    no way george clooney is a top contender with that boring recycled performance in a movie we have already seen so many times 

    • http://twitter.com/Cine_Capsulas Gustavo H. Razera

      Have you actually seen the film or just the trailer?

      • VS

        i’ve only seen the trailer. I guess you’re gonna tell me that I have no idea what the movie is about or how Clooney is going to act in it?

  • Maxx

    I don’t understand why you think Kristen Stewart will get a nod for On the Road but not Garrett Hedlund or Sam Riley who are the two main charactors in the movie??  Are Garrett and Sam really that horrible in the movie cause from what I have read no one has seen the movie except for the 6 mins that was shown at Cannes.  Grant it your predictions are pretty accurate but why is OTR getting so much buzz when no one has seen it.  Is it because its a novel made into a movie?

    • Andrew

      Yeah.. Plus am I the only one that thinks kristen’s acting is horrible? If she got an Oscar nod I’d question the academy.

      • Anonymous

        You’re not the only one.

      • Gabitza

        why would you say that?? she is a good actress…what do all people hate her?? can’t nobody actually tell her acting style is different?

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  • Anonymous

    I’m really excited for ’50/50′ with Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Anna Kendrick and Seth Rogen. It looks excellent.

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  • Anonymous

    No love for Margin Call? I could see it gaining steam after its released in theaters.

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  • Willsharp

    Always love prediction updates from you, Scott. But I see on IMDb that “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Wettest County in the World” are set for 2012 releases. Is this wrong?

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Thanks Will. My sources tell me it is more likely than not that both will ultimately be pushed into 2011.

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  • GL

    I think I read somewhere how the Academy is not going to consider Tintin in the Animation category. It used the same method as Avatar and they decided not to include that. I don’t know I could be wrong.

  • Joe W

    I think you are overestimating “Like Crazy”. It was a good movie and everyone was great in it, but I think walking away with a screenplay nomination will be this movie’s biggest victory.

    That being said, I think “Super 8″ has a shot to make a big impact. The one original, intelligent, well-made, summer blockbuster (Inception, District 9, etc) that gets in. I think JJ could score either a screenplay or director nomination (or both) depending on the rest of the field. I mean Star Trek came very close to getting a BP nom

  • McIlraith

    What about “Jane Eyre”?  I know it came out early, but it’s really gorgeous and haunting and the performances are fantastic.  I think it could fall into the “Possibilities” category.

    Also, I feel like “Rio” should be higher on the Best Animated Pic list.  Can’t help but think there’s no way a Chipmunks movie is going to garner many votes from Academy voters.  Also, in Animated I think the voters may shy away from having a bunch of “2”s up there.  My guess is “Rango”, “Rio” and either Happy Feet or one of the indies.

  • Trastofer

    Don’t count on THE WAY. It was released last year in Spain and was absolutely unnoticeable.

  • Anonymous

    “The Interrupters” is solid but so needs the editing scissors on it as at 2.5 hrs is way too long given the subject. Be nice if the big names don’t walk it just as they have high profiles – was undewhelmed by “Project Nim”, no “Man On Wire” & Morgan Sprulocks “Greatest Movie” is more pazzaz and hardly a best of year feature documentary, Life In A Day was a muddle to watch and was out on Youtube before it’s theatrical release so would not be eligible?  Liked “Page One” very much &  HBO’s “Marathon Boy” was an incredible film, thought it should have won Tribeca – should be way up there on the list.

  • Nick

    A number of comments. Firstly, IMDb has Carnage listed for 2012, is there a limited release happening first?

    Also, the animated category will be as followed: Rango, The Adventures of Tintin, and Kung-Fu Panda 2

  • http://twitter.com/sosgemini Nicholas

    Looks to be another, umm, colorless award season. :grumble: Super 8’s reviews are lukewarm to bad. You can scratch that off your list. Tree of Life is doing stellar box office and is winning major critical response. IMHO, it’s the front runner at this point. 

  • SPS

    Emily Browning in Sleeping Beauty.

    Her performance in that and Sucker Punch (which won’t be recognized, but I don’t care) were both showcases of incredible bravery from a young actress who I think has a bright future ahead of her.

  • SPS

    Also, in the Supporting Actor race, Stephen Lang in White Irish Drinkers. Very small film, but a powerhouse performance from an actor who’s long deserved Oscar recognition.

  • Eric

    I had a quick question that’s Aaron Eckhart related. He’s going to be in The Rum Diary as most likely a best supporting actor from what I’ve heard. You put The Rum Diary as possibilities for screenplay, director, and movie. And you put Jonny Depp as a major threat for The Rum Diary. I was just curious as to why not just you but almost all critics snub Eckhart. He has done some awesome films/roles such as Thank You For Smoking, Rabbit Hole, and The Dark Knight. He also has done some bad sci-fi, rom-com films but he shined in them. And if you’ve seen interviews with him he only takes those roles to challenge himself as an actor. So why wasn’t Eckhart at least a possibility? Hopefully you see this and respond, and by the way I love the website.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Hey Eric,
      Thanks for the kind words. I am still learning about a number of these films myself, including The Rum Diary, and will try to investigate Eckhart’s prospects before the next update. Thanks for the tip!
      Best,
      Scott

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Hey Eric,
      Thanks for the kind words. I am still learning about a number of these films myself, including The Rum Diary, and will try to investigate Eckhart’s prospects before the next update. Thanks for the tip!
      Best,
      Scott

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Hey Eric,
      Thanks for the kind words. I am still learning about a number of these films myself, including The Rum Diary, and will try to investigate Eckhart’s prospects before the next update. Thanks for the tip!
      Best,
      Scott

  • Thepurpleferret

    You don’t think Jennifer Lawrence might be in the running for Supporting Actress for “Like Crazy” possibly? I don’t know, I think I’m just still on a “Winter’s Bone” high.

  • Anonymous

    Albert Nobbs should not be included in the Best Original Screenplay category. It is based on a short story by George Moore. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Christopher-Ian-Adame/100001854835765 Christopher Ian Adame

    harry potter !!!!!!!!