Talking Movies, Episode 6: ‘Safety Last!,’ ‘The General’ and ‘City Lights’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 5: ‘The Last Picture Show,’ ‘Mean Streets’ and ‘The Conversation’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 4: ‘Bonnie and Clyde,’ ‘Easy Rider’ and ‘The Wild Bunch’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 3: ‘Marty,’ ‘The Bridge on the River Kwai’ and ‘Ben-Hur’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 2: ‘The Lost Weekend,’ ‘The Best Years of Our Lives’ and ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’ ... Alfred Hitchcock and ‘The 39 Steps’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 1: ‘The Third Man’ (1949) ... Akira Kurosawa – ‘Ran’ (1985) ...
Countdown to Oscars

Sunday, January 22, 2012
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FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott’s Final Picks for Tuesday’s 84th Academy Award Nominations

On Tuesday morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will put an end to months of speculation — including plenty by me, as reflected in charts posted on this blog every weekend since September — by announcing its nominees for the 84th Academy Awards. That means that it is now time, for better or worse, for me to man up and lock in my final predictions of what/who those nominees will be.

I urge you to keep in mind that what follows is not necessarily what I feel should happen — that can be better gleaned from reading my year-end top 10 list – but rather what I think will happen, based on months of screenings (I’ve seen all of the likely nominees, many multiple times), observations (of critics, guilds, and other awards-bestowers), and conversations (with pundits and voters).

I have historically done quite well when it comes to forecasting Oscar nominations — for instance, I projected best picture noms for The Reader (2008) and for The Blind Side(2009) when virtually no one else did — but you have to prove yourself anew each year, and I hope to do just that.

Regardless of how things pan out, thank you for taking the time to read and consider what I have to say, and please consider sharing your own forecasts in the comments section of this post!

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  • Glenda

    OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR FILMS RELEASED IN 2011 (okay, only some of the categories…)

    BEST PICTURE
     THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
     THE ARTIST
     THE DESCENDANTS
     HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
     THE HELP
     MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
     MONEYBALL
     MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
     A SEPARATION
     TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
     
    BEST ACTOR
     GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS)
     LEONARDO DICAPRIO (J. EDGAR)
     JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
     GARY OLDMAN (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
     BRAD PITT (MONEYBALL)
    BEST ACTRESS

     VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
     KIRSTEN DUNST (MELANCHOLIA)
     MERYL STREEP (THE IRON LADY)
     TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
     MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
     
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
     KENNETH BRANAGH (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
     COLIN FIRTH (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
     JONAH HILL (MONEYBALL)
     CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
     ALAN RICKMAN (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
     BERENICE BEJO (THE ARTIST)
     KATHY BURKE (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
     JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE HELP)
     MELISSA MCCARTHY (BRIDESMAIDS)
     OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)
     
    BEST DIRECTOR
     TOMAS ALFREDSON (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
     MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
     ALEXANDER PAYNE (THE DESCENDANTS)
     MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO)
     DAVID YATES (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
     THE ARTIST
     BRIDESMAIDS
     MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
     THE TREE OF LIFE
     YOUNG ADULT
     
    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
     THE DESCENDANTS
     HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
     THE HELP
     MONEYBALL
     TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

    BEST FILM EDITING 
     THE ARTIST
     THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
     HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
     HUGO
     TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY