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Countdown to Oscars

Monday, July 11, 2011
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FLASH: UPDATED OSCAR FORECAST!

The following forecast reflects my best sense — at roughly the mid-point of 2011 — of the Oscar landscape that awaits us. (These are my first projections to factor in the Academy’s recently-announced changes to its voting process.) Needless to say, I will be posting many updates/revisions over the coming months, but, for now, I see it as a fun discussion-starter. Your thoughts?

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 12/14, ?, ?)
War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, teaser)
The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, ?)
The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 12/16, R, trailer)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, ?/?, ?, ?)
Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, ?)
Young Adult” (Paramount, ?/?, ?, ?)
Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, ?, ?)
Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, 12/6, ?, teaser)

Major Threats
The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, ?, trailer)
A Dangerous Method” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Hugo” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, ?)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, ?)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Universal, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Moneyball” (Columbia, 9/23, ?, trailer)
Contagion” (Warner Brothers, 9/9, ?, trailer)
Martha Marcy May Marlene” (Fox Searchlight, 10/7, ?, trailer)
The Tree of Life” (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
Albert Nobbs” (Liddell Entertainment/Roadside Attractions, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Help” (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo” (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)
Possibilities
Super 8” (Paramount, 6/10, ?, trailer)
Coriolanus” (The Weinstein Company, 12/2, ?, ?)
My Week with Marilyn” (The Weinstein Company, 11/4, ?, ?)
Take Shelter” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/7, ?, ?)
The Rum Diary” (FilmDistrict, 10/28, ?, ?)
We Need to Talk About Kevin” (Oscilloscope, ?/?, ?, ?)
Melancholia” (Magnolia, 11/4, ?, trailer)
The Skin I Live In” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, trailer)
The Way” (Icon Entertainment, 9/30, ?, ?)
Beginners” (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer)
One Day” (Focus Features, 8/19, PG-13, trailer)
Win Win” (Fox Searchlight, 3/18, R, trailer)
50/50” (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
On the Road” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
Wuthering Heights” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Steven Spielberg (“War Horse”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”)
Stephen Daldry (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Major Threats
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Jason Reitman (“Young Adult”)
David Fincher (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”)
David Cronenberg (“A Dangerous Method”)
Drake Doremus (“Like Crazy”)
Tomas Alfredson (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Steven Soderbergh (“Contagion”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Bennett Miller (“Moneyball”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Possibilities
Steven Spielberg (“The Adventures of Tintin”)
Cameron Crowe (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Phyllida Lloyd (“The Iron Lady”)
Rodrigo Garcia (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Simon Curtis (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Lone Scherfig (“One Day”)
Tom McCarthy (“Win Win”)
Jonathan Levine (“50/50”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Andrea Arnold (“Wuthering Heights”)
Walter Salles (“On the Road”)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”)
George Clooney (“The Descendants”)
Ryan Gosling (“The Ides of March”)
Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”)
Gary Oldman (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Major Threats
Anton Yelchin (“Like Crazy”)
Jeremy Irvine (“War Horse”)
Michael Fassbender (“A Dangerous Method”)
Matt Damon (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Christoph Waltz (“Carnage”)
John C. Reilly (“Carnage”)
Asa Butterfield (“Hugo”)
Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)
Michael Shannon (“Take Shelter”)
Thomas Horn (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Daniel Craig (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“50/50”)
Possibilities
Ryan Gosling (“Drive”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
Johnny Depp (“The Rum Diary”)
Antonio Banderas (“The Skin I Live In”)
Patrick Wilson (“Young Adult”)
Brad Pitt (“The Tree of Life”)
Sam Shepard (“Blackthorn”)
Martin Sheen (“The Way”)
Jim Sturgess (“One Day”)
Ewan McGregor (“Beginners”)
Paul Giamatti (“Win Win”)
Michael Sheen (“Beautiful Boy”)
Eddie Redmayne (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Dominic Cooper (“The Devil’s Double”)
Steve Carell (“Crazy, Stupid, Love”)
Demian Bichir (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Michael Fassbender (“Shame”)
Sean Penn (“This Must Be the Place”)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”)
Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Felicity Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”)
Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Major Threats
Keira Knightley (“A Dangerous Method”)
Elizabeth Olsen (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Jodie Foster (“Carnage”)
Kate Winslet (“Carnage”)
Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Kirsten Dunst (“Melancholia”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Whistleblower”)
Emma Stone (“The Help”)
Possibilities
Anne Hathaway (“One Day”)
Andrea Riseborough (“W.E.”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Jane Eyre”)
Kristin Scott Thomas (“Sarah’s Key”)
Emily Watson (“Oranges and Sunshine”)
Maria Bello (“Beautiful Boy”)
Ellen Barkin (“Another Happy Day”)
Michelle Williams (“Take This Waltz”)
Helen Mirren (“The Debt”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Frances McDormand (“This Must Be the Place”)
Carey Mulligan (“Shame”)
Katie O’Grady (“Rid of Me”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”)
Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Viggo Mortensen (“A Dangerous Method”)
Jim Broadbent (“The Iron Lady”)
Tom Hanks (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Major Threats
Ezra Miller (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Patton Oswalt (“Young Adult”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Ides of March”)
Thomas Haden Church (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Albert Brooks (“Drive”)
Armie Hammer (“J. Edgar”)
John Hawkes (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Aaron Johnson (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jonathan Rhys Meyers (“Albert Nobbs”)
Possibilities
Vincent Cassel (“A Dangerous Method”)
Jeffrey Wright (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Paul Giamatti (“The Ides of March”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Moneyball”)
Ben Kingsley (“Hugo”)
Jude Law (“Hugo”)
Richard Jenkins (“The Rum Diary”)
Aaron Eckhart (“The Rum Diary”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Mia Wasikowska (“Albert Nobbs”)
Scarlett Johansson (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Marisa Tomei (“The Ides of March”)
Emily Watson (“War Horse”)
Judi Dench (“J. Edgar”)
Major Threats
Sandra Bullock (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Naomi Watts (“J. Edgar”)
Viola Davis (“The Help”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Sarah Gadon (“A Dangerous Method”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“The Ides of March”)
Jessica Chastain (“Take Shelter”)
Vanessa Redgrave (“Coriolanus”)
Alexandra Roach (“The Iron Lady”)
Anna Kendrick (“50/50”)
Robin Wright (“Moneyball”)
Emily Mortimer (“Hugo”)
Charlotte Rampling (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Possibilities
Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”)
Elle Fanning (“Super 8”)
Elle Fanning (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Stephanie Szotak (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Judi Dench (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Charlotte Rampling (“Melancholia”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Tree of Life”)
Judy Davis (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Chloe Moretz (“Hugo”)
Shailene Woodley (“The Descendants”)
Amara Miller (“The Descendants”)
Lea Thompson (“J. Edgar”)
Melanie Laurent (“Beginners”)
Demi Moore (“Another Happy Day”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Amy Adams (“On the Road”)
Kirsten Dunst (“On the Road”)
Kristen Stewart (“On the Road”)
Orianna Herrman (“Rid of Me”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (“War Horse”)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (“The Ides of March”)
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (“The Descendants”)
Eric Roth (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Major Threats
Christopher Hampton (“A Dangerous Method”)
John Logan (“Hugo”)
Steven Zaillian (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (“Moneyball”)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
Possibilities
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
John Logan (“Coriolanus”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
David Nicholls (“One Day”)
Eric Eason (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Olivia Hetreed (“Wuthering Heights”)
Jose Rivera (“On the Road”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Dustin Lance Black (“J. Edgar”)
Diablo Cody (“Young Adult”)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Major Threats
Abi Morgan (“The Iron Lady”)
Scott Z. Burns (“Contagion”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy Mae Marlene”)
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
John Banville, Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Possibilities
Adrian Hodges (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (“Win Win”)
Sam Levinson (“Another Happy Day”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
James Westby (“Rid of Me”)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
Rango” (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2” (Warner Brothers, 11/18, ?, ?)
Cars 2” (Disney, 6/24, not yet rated, trailer)
Major Threats
Rio” (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Arthur Christmas” (Sony, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Winnie the Pooh” (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked” (20th Century Fox, 12/11, ?, ?)
Possibilities
Kung Fu Panda 2” (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
Puss in Boots” (DreamWorks, 11/4, ?, trailer)
The Smurfs” (Sony, 7/29, ?, trailer)
The Lion of Judah” (Animated Family Films, 6/3, ?, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
The Dreaming Machine” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Rabbi’s Cat” (?, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Tales of the Night” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Buck” (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Magic Trip” (Magnolia, 8/5, ?, trailer)
If a Tree Falls” (Oscilloscope, 6/22, ?, trailer)
Page One: Inside the New York Times” (Magnolia, 6/24, ?, trailer)
Project Nim” (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Major Threats
The Interrupters” (The Cinema Guild, ?/?, ?, ?)
Koran by Heart” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Tabloid” (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold” (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
How to Die in Oregon” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Hell and Back Again” (New Video, 10/?, ?, ?)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975” (Sundance Selects, ?/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
Pearl Jam Twenty” (Abramorama, 9/?, ?, ?)
Life in a Day” (National Geographic, 7/24, ?, ?)
The Bully Project” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Senna” (Producers Distribution Agency, ?/?, ?, ?)
Revenge of the Electric Car” (Westmidwest Productions, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Bobby Fischer Against the World” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer’s Journey” (Submarine Entertainment, ?/?, ?, ?)
African Cats” (Disney, 4/22, G, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

Photo: Kate Winslet, Jodie Foster, John C. Reilly, and Christoph Waltz in “Carnage.” Credit: Sony Pictures Classics.

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  • Light

    I think Richard Jenkins and johnny should be in front runners and Bruce Robinson and David fincher 

    • http://twitter.com/JupiterJulze Julianna

      Agreed

  • Tuvia

    Rango is definitely going to win Oscar for Best animated film.I still hope for The Rum Diary for Johnny Depp and team,but I’m afraid Clint Eastwood and Leo DiCaprio have more chances

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Rango will probably win… if The Adventures of Tintin is deemed ineligble for the best animated feature category. That’s a big “if.”

      • http://twitter.com/Sploich Adam Bolden

        Tintin will be ineligible because it uses motion capture. Also knowing Spielberg’s typical children’s films I’m rather skeptical about this film altogether.

    • http://twitter.com/JupiterJulze Julianna

      I hope rango does :) and Johnny <3

  • Dinasztie

    I’m rooting for great Glenn. But I don’t want to have false hopes. Remember Cheri? 

    I’d say Streep will win. The trailer got so much backlash but I think she’ll be great. 

  • Joe Gouveia

    I’ve seen a few predictions charts already for the 2011 Academy Awards, and I keep seeing the same thing: little to no mention of the final Harry Potter film in the Best Picture race.  What chances do you think it’ll have obtaining the same status as, say, The Lord of the Rings trilogy?  Although all three of those films made it to the Best Picture race and none (so far) of the Harry Potter films have, the Academy still chose to honour the last film with its numerous wins.  Do you think this last movie will go the same route?  Also, what about the possibility of Ralph Fiennes getting a Best Supporting Actor nomination for playing Voldemort?  He is a superb actor with two nominations already to his name and that character has evolved quite a bit over the series.  I’m hoping that, depending on the amount of screen time, he could sneak in (which would be a very cool surprise)

    • Xayahoo

      Sorry Joe, but at least of a miracle, there isn’t a chance for the last HP being nominated in the bigger categories.

      First: Even with good reviews, the last HP films directed by Yates received least enthusiasm than the others.
      Second: With this new rule of BP Oscars, they need at least 5% of votes and now his spot is even more dubious with genre and box office hits films like “Drive”, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”, “Crazy, Stupid, Love” and others in competition.
      Third: Remember, the first LotR won four Oscars and was tied with A Beautiful Mind…
      Fourth: If the first Harry Potter didn’t make it even with a PGA and the first four films with the biggest british support…

      • SPS

        Least enthusiasm! It’ll be the biggest film of the year come Friday! Screw Transformers.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Joe, I just don’t see it happening. It hasn’t been a groundbreaking series like the “LOTR” films were, and its earlier installments haven’t resonated with Academy members as much as the earlier installments of the “LOTR” films did, so I don’t sense or anticipate a groundswell of people looking to honor this film — or any of its performances — on behalf of the whole series. (That could change, but that’s my sense at the moment.)

      • M A Mcilraith

        I think HP will get a nod for Art Direction (Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan), and have a decent chance to win.  The Art Direction has been insanely good for the entire series, and already garnered noms for three of the films.  I see voters giving them this one as a prize for their work on the entire series.

        I could also see HP getting nominated for VFX and the score…

      • Surej

        The movie has exceptional reviews so far. I’ve seen it and thought it was brilliant and Alan Rickman gave a wonderful performance deserving of at least a nod. Have you seen the movie? What are your thoughts about it?

  • Pabloalxndr

    what about the possibilities of “Drive” and “We need to talk about Kevin” for best picture and director?.Both films had excellent reviews at Cannes film festival,and also the first film won the best director prize.And also think Ryan Gosling for “Crazy, stupid, love” and Ezra Miller for”We need to talk about Kevin” have great possibilities for best supporting actor

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      My gut is that “Drive” is more likely to do well commercially than in terms of awards, and under the best of circumstances would not show up in picture or director, but rather actor or supporting actor. “We Need to Talk About Kevin” is also a performance vehicle (for actress and supporting actor), not a serious picture or director contender.

  • Reallyweird

    Watch out the Fincher. Maybe i’m wrong, but I think it will be one of the frontrunners.

    Also in Best Picture, The Artist can hurt, trust me^^.

  • http://www.awards-insider.com Oliver

    You don’t expect Tintin to disqualify for being motion capture?

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      I’m not sure at the moment. My guess is that people will realize that we need to broaden our views of what animation is or risk having nothing to put in the category, since this sort of animation is probably the wave of the future, and that it therefore will not be disqualified.

  • http://www.facebook.com/robby.harrington Robby Harrington

    ‘Another Happy Day’ doesn’t have distribution, does it? I haven’t seen a release date for it, was it picked up at Sundance?

  • AB Siddique

    It’s gonna be David Fincher and his Dragon Tattoo this year.. War Horse looks good but Academy should not stick to the same old formula of war movies, at least not this year because there’s gonna be so many brilliant movies.

    But David Fincher is all guaranteed. Bravo! 

  • marc olin

    Tom Hanks would not be supporting in Incredibly Loud and they have given him so much already I don’t think he can win anything for this one. I saw Drive at the L.A. Film Festival and I would definitely move Brooks to the Frontrunners. Has anyone seen J Edgar or Ides of March? Everyone is assuming those are shoo ins. I think someone needs to see them.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      I’m told by sources close to the film that Hanks will not be pushed in lead, but rather supporting. We’ll see.

  • http://thatfellow.com/ Mike Tarigan

    I have this bad habit where I read the original play of some movies and I just read  God of Carnage for Carnage and The Talking Cure for A Dangerous Method and I can assure you they’re amazing and very worthy for nominations in Best Adapted Screenplay.

    Also it seems that critics and bloggers are dropping Tree of Life off their lists. I think I’ll run a campaign myself for Keira Knightley later this fall cos I really like her and she looks amazing from the trailer.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      This could certainly be the year for Keira, who, in my opinion, was screwed out of a nomination for “Atonement” (2007) a few years ago.

  • Andy

    It’s too early, but I agree with the great Dinasztie. Glenn Close has given so many great performances, a few which should have been nominated. Yes, she is histrionic at times, but she is a broadway patron. When she hits her mark, no one is more convincing. She rules at monologues where she has often displayed multiple emotions in one scene. Politically, yes, she deserves an Oscar when we think of all those people who won Oscars that can’t be considered the best. This may be the one year when I hope politics trounces merit (it tends to at the Oscars), assuming Albert Nobbs is a good film. I’m not worried about Close’s performance as she only gets better with age.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Close is always terrific — it would be very special to see her finally get her due from the Academy!

  • talli

    Tinker Tailor soldier spy is not a top contender? what are you smoking

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      I’m not saying it won’t be an excellent film. I just know that films adapted from John Le Carre novels tend to get recognized in acting categories, not picture.
      Their plots/genres don’t exactly coincide with the Academy’s tastes.
      Maybe this one will be different. It’s not like I don’t have it on my
      list of possibilities… I just don’t have it at the top.

  • talli

    also, no Tom Hardy for Warrior or The Wettest County? what is going on here

    • SPS

      The Wettest Country isn’t being considered because of Shia LaIdiot and it might get a 2012 release. And Warrior isn’t really Oscar worthy material.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      I’m getting mixed messages about whether or not it will make it into 2011 — the Weinsteins already have a very heavy plate, and, unless a few of their other contenders falter, I’m inclined to believe that it’s more likely to come out in 2012.

  • jorge

    i think knightley is going to be campaigning as supporting… and looking at the other possible nominees she even could win, she has avery strong role here, maybe the strongest of her career

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Again, I’m getting mixed messages about her category placement. For now, I’m keeping her in lead, but if she were to go supporting you’re absolutely right — it appears to be a weak category this year, and she would probably have a very strong shot at not only getting nominated but even winning.

  • talli

    “jonnygeller      
    just seen the Tinker Tailor movie – most intelligent, visually stunning & gripping movie of the year. Gary Oldman makes you forget Alec Guiness. Maybe not forget but such a different vision of the book you soon forget the grey 70s classic. Tom Hardy is the new Brando”Scott will wise up 3 months later and then act like he always had it pegged in the top spot

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      I’m not saying it won’t be an excellent film. I just know that films adapted from John Le Carre novels tend to get recognized in acting categories, not picture. Their plots/genres don’t exactly coincide with the Academy’s tastes. Maybe this one will be different. It’s not like I don’t have it on my list of possibilities… I just don’t have it at the top.

  • Lylewagner1980

    From what I see, most of the contenders deserve to be mentioned, but “Rid of Me?” Give me a break.  I saw it at Tribeca and it’s a trivial piece of fluff with amateur performances.  I am surprised it made the cut to be a part of the festival let alone be mentioned on this list at all.  That has got to be a joke or either the filmmakers sucked up to Mr. Feinberg at an  after party for the film or some such nonsense.  

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      You’re entitled to your opinion, but there’s no need to throw around stupid accusations.

  • Artemrakov

    Are you stoned???? Michelle Williams for Marylin?????? She’s been getting really mediocre reviews from several screenings, and Young Adult is too raw for the Academy. I think you’re really underestimating Dragon Tatto’s chances, and don’t put too much hope in The Descendants, a huge let-down…

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      You appear to be trying to claim that you have already seen The Descendants and Young Adult, if not The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and My Week with Marilyn. If that’s the case and you can prove that to me, then I will take what you’re saying a lot more seriously. At this point, though, I respectfully doubt that you are in a position to call The Descendants “a huge let-down” based on anything but your personal dislike of the trailer.

      • Artemrakov

        People who have already seen Young Adult say that it’s decent with good performances, but that’s all… no way in he’ll something that was compared to Rachel Getting Married and Greenberg is getting Oscar love…

  • BRIAN SELIGSON

    HEY SCOTT — MAJOR OVERSIGHT
    AMY RYAN(“WIN WIN’) HAS GOT TO BE SOMEWHERE ON YOUR SUPPORTING ACTRESS LIST     

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Brian, I had Amy listed among the long-shots on my first forecast of the year, but, realistically, I just don’t think it was a meaty enough role to be remembered at the end of the year. The movie belongs to Giamatti and the kid, and maybe Cannavale, not Amy (as much as I personally love her in everything she does).

  • QU347

    Jeffrey Wright and Viola Davis wins for Supporting Roles

  • Clara

    Elle Fanning should definitely be a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress for Super 8. Her performance in it was like none other I’ve ever seen. And Mia Wasikowska should get a nomination for Jane Eyre as well.

  • Rkelver

    Liana Liberato-“Trust”!!! You seem to have forgotten about her incrediable performance. Don’t forget she won Best Actress at the Chicago International Film Fest for her performance. She should, at the very least, be mentioned before Elle Fannings “Super 8″ consideration. She has received nothing but rave reviews and deserves recognition.

  • phantom

    As much as I love Keira Knightley’s work, I really hope it will be Glenn Close’s year. I would also like to see a few “first” nominations : Cronenberg, Forster, Fassbender etc.

  • http://twitter.com/Theslyguy2011 Michael

    Well her sister didn’t get nominated for Runaways. So Elle does not deserve to be nominated for Super 8.
    Dakota’s performance in the Runaways was oscar worthy but she got snubbed. It wasn’t right for such a great performance and not getting nominated. So if Elle gets nominated for her part in super 8 it will be so wrong.

    • Rkelver

      Have you seen Trust? Liana’s performance was one the best performances I’ve seen from an actor yet alone an actor her age. Excellent and deserves a nomination even if the movie was pulled by distributor.

  • Sam Negin

    There’s been a lot of talk about Brad Pitt in “Moneyball” saying that this movie could be for him what “The Blind Side” was for Sandra Bullock.  Any thoughts on this one?

  • Lucky

    Wow, Supporting Actress is really up in the air, and I think your Best Actor predictions are really good, wouldn’t be surprised to see those same five names getting announced on nomination morning.

    And hey, you named Wuthering Heights (still seeking distribution) in Screenplay, Director and Picture. I think that if the film gets picked up a campaign could be started on the star, Kaya Scodelario. I don’t think it would eventually get her a nod, but it could get the kind of attention Katie Jarvis got for Arnold’s last film, Fish Tank.

  • Eric

    Nice updates done, but I really feel like this is Fincher’s year and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be a great film.

  • Eric

    All I have to say is “Keira Knightley for the win on Best Supporting Actress” without a doubt just from the trailer you can tell this is not only her best role but a powerful and meaty roll at that!! Your thoughts?

  • http://twitter.com/JupiterJulze Julianna

    Johnny Depp, Chloe Moretz, Emma Stone AHHHH THEY ALL BETTER WINNNNNNN :)

    OH AND RANGO, THAT WAS A CUTE MOVIE. <3