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Countdown to Oscars

Saturday, July 30, 2011
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FLASH: AUGUST PROJECTIONS!

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
J. Edgar” (Warner Brothers, 11/11, ?, ?)
War Horse” (Disney, 12/28, ?, teaser)
The Ides of March” (Sony, 10/14, ?, trailer)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (Paramount/Warner Brothers, 12/25, ?, ?)
The Descendants” (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)

Carnage” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, ?)
Midnight in Paris” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
Like Crazy” (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, PG-13, trailer)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” (Focus Features, 11/18, ?, trailer)
The Iron Lady” (The Weinstein Company, 12/6, ?, teaser)

Major Threats
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” (Sony, 12/21, ?, trailer)
Hugo” (Paramount, 11/23, ?, trailer)
The Artist” (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, ?, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo” (20th Century Fox, 12/23, ?, ?)
A Dangerous Method” (Sony Pictures Classics, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Moneyball” (Columbia, 9/23, ?, trailer)
50/50” (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
The Help” (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
Albert Nobbs” (Liddell Entertainment/Roadside Attractions, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Way” (Icon Entertainment, 10/7, ?, ?)
Contagion” (Warner Brothers, 9/9, ?, trailer)
Coriolanus” (The Weinstein Company, 12/2, ?, ?)
The Tree of Life” (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
Martha Marcy May Marlene” (Fox Searchlight, 10/7, ?, trailer)
Take Shelter” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/7, ?, ?)
The Skin I Live In” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/18, ?, trailer)
Young Adult” (Paramount, ?/?, ?, 12/9)
Super 8” (Paramount, 6/10, ?, trailer)
One Day” (Focus Features, 8/19, PG-13, trailer)
We Need to Talk About Kevin” (Oscilloscope, ?/?, ?, ?)
Melancholia” (Magnolia, 11/4, ?, trailer)
My Week with Marilyn” (The Weinstein Company, 11/4, ?, ?)
The Rum Diary” (FilmDistrict, 10/28, ?, ?)
Win Win” (Fox Searchlight, 3/18, R, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
On the Road” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
Wuthering Heights” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Steven Spielberg (“War Horse”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Stephen Daldry (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”)
Major Threats
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
David Fincher (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
David Cronenberg (“A Dangerous Method”)
Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”)
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Tomas Alfredson (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
Cameron Crowe (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Drake Doremus (“Like Crazy”)
Phyllida Lloyd (“The Iron Lady”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Possibilities
Steven Spielberg (“The Adventures of Tintin”)
Bennett Miller (“Moneyball”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Steven Soderbergh (“Contagion”)
Jason Reitman (“Young Adult”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
Rodrigo Garcia (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Simon Curtis (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Tom McCarthy (“Win Win”)
Lone Scherfig (“One Day”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Jonathan Levine (“50/50”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Andrea Arnold (“Wuthering Heights”)
Walter Salles (“On the Road”)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (“J. Edgar”)
George Clooney (“The Descendants”)
Ryan Gosling (“The Ides of March”)
Gary Oldman (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”)
Major Threats
Michael Fassbender (“A Dangerous Method”)
Matt Damon (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Michael Shannon (“Take Shelter”)
Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)
Christoph Waltz (“Carnage”)
John C. Reilly (“Carnage”)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“50/50”)
Antonio Banderas (“The Skin I Live In”)
Johnny Depp (“The Rum Diary”)
Daniel Craig (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Ryan Gosling (“Drive”)
Anton Yelchin (“Like Crazy”)
Possibilities
Martin Sheen (“The Way”)
Sam Shepard (“Blackthorn”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Coriolanus”)
Jeremy Irvine (“War Horse”)
Thomas Horn (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Asa Butterfield (“Hugo”)
Rhys Ifans (“Anonymous”)
Paul Giamatti (“Win Win”)
Ewan McGregor (“Beginners”)
Brad Pitt (“The Tree of Life”)
Eddie Redmayne (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Jim Sturgess (“One Day”)
Dominic Cooper (“The Devil’s Double”)
Demian Bichir (“A Better Life”)
Michael Sheen (“Beautiful Boy”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Michael Fassbender (“Shame”)
Sean Penn (“This Must Be the Place”)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”)
Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Felicity Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Major Threats
Elizabeth Olsen (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Kate Winslet (“Carnage”)
Jodie Foster (“Carnage”)
Tilda Swinton (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Whistleblower”)
Kirsten Dunst (“Melancholia”)
Emma Stone (“The Help”)
Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”)
Possibilities
Andrea Riseborough (“W.E”)
Anne Hathaway (“One Day”)
Kristin Scott Thomas (“Sarah’s Key”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Jane Eyre”)
Emily Watson (“Oranges and Sunshine”)
Maria Bello (“Beautiful Boy”)
Ellen Barkin (“Another Happy Day”)
Helen Mirren (“The Debt”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Frances McDormand (“This Must Be the Place”)
Carey Mulligan (“Shame”)
Katie O’Grady (“Rid of Me”)
Michelle Williams (“Take This Waltz”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”)
Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Ides of March”)
Viggo Mortensen (“A Dangerous Method”)
John Hawkes (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”)
Major Threats
Jim Broadbent (“The Iron Lady”)
Ezra Miller (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Albert Brooks (“Drive”)
Armie Hammer (“J. Edgar”)
Jeffrey Wright (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Tom Hanks (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Thomas Haden Church (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Aaron Johnson (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jonathan Rhys Meyers (“Albert Nobbs”)
Possibilities
Ben Kingsley (“Hugo”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Moneyball”)
Patton Oswalt (“Young Adult”)
Vincent Cassel (“A Dangerous Method”)
George Clooney (“The Ides of March”)
Paul Giamatti (“The Ides of March”)
Jude Law (“Hugo”)
Richard Jenkins (“The Rum Diary”)
Aaron Eckhart (“The Rum Diary”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Keira Knightley (“A Dangerous Method”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Albert Nobbs”)
Naomi Watts (“J. Edgar”)
Marisa Tomei (“The Ides of March”)
Judi Dench (“J. Edgar”)
Major Threats
Vanessa Redgrave (“Coriolanus”)
Sandra Bullock (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Scarlett Johansson (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Emily Watson (“War Horse”)
Viola Davis (“The Help”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Jessica Chastain (“Take Shelter”)
Chloe Moretz (“Hugo”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“The Ides of March”)
Sarah Gadon (“A Dangerous Method”)
Vanessa Redgrave (“Anonymous”)
Judi Dench (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Possibilities
Alexandra Roach (“The Iron Lady”)
Anna Kendrick (“50/50”)
Robin Wright (“Moneyball”)
Emily Mortimer (“Hugo”)
Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”)
Charlotte Rampling (“Melancholia”)
Elle Fanning (“Super 8”)
Elle Fanning (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Stephanie Szotak (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Shailene Woodley (“The Descendants”)
Amara Miller (“The Descendants”)
Lea Thompson (“J. Edgar”)
Demi Moore (“Another Happy Day”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Amy Adams (“On the Road”)
Judy Davis (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Kirsten Dunst (“On the Road”)
Charlotte Rampling (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Kristen Stewart (“On the Road”)
Orianna Herrman (“Rid of Me”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (“War Horse”)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (“The Ides of March”)
Eric Roth (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (“The Descendants”)
Roman Polanski (“Carnage”)
Major Threats
Steven Zaillian (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”)
Christopher Hampton (“A Dangerous Method”)
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (“Moneyball”)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (“We Bought a Zoo”)
John Logan (“Hugo”)
Tate Taylor (“The Help”)
Possibilities
Pedro Almodovar (“The Skin I Live In”)
John Logan (“Coriolanus”)
Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay (“We Need to Talk About Kevin”)
Lars von Trier (“Melancholia”)
Bruce Robinson (“The Rum Diary”)
David Nicholls (“One Day”)
Eric Eason (“A Better Life”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Olivia Hetreed (“Wuthering Heights”)
Jose Rivera (“On the Road”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Dustin Lance Black (“J. Edgar”)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (“Like Crazy”)
Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)
Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)
Abi Morgan (“The Iron Lady”)
Major Threats
Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy Mae Marlene”)
Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
John Banville, Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)
Jeff Nichols (“Take Shelter”)
Scott Z. Burns (“Contagion”)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (“Win Win”)
Possibilities
Diablo Cody (“Young Adult”)
Emilio Estevez (“The Way”)
Adrian Hodges (“My Week with Marilyn”)
J.J. Abrams (“Super 8”)
Mike Mills (“Beginners”)
Sam Levinson (“Another Happy Day”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
James Westby (“Rid of Me”)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Adventures of Tintin” (Paramount, 12/23, ?, trailer)
Rango” (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2” (Warner Brothers, 11/18, ?, ?)
Cars 2” (Disney, 6/24, not yet rated, trailer)
Rio” (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Major Threats
Arthur Christmas” (Sony, 11/23, ?, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked” (20th Century Fox, 12/11, ?, ?)
Winnie the Pooh” (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Possibilities
Kung Fu Panda 2” (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
Puss in Boots” (DreamWorks, 11/4, ?, trailer)
The Smurfs” (Sony, 7/29, ?, trailer)
The Lion of Judah” (Animated Family Films, 6/3, ?, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
The Dreaming Machine” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)
The Rabbi’s Cat” (?, ?/?, ?, trailer)
Tales of the Night” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Project Nim” (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Buck” (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Senna” (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
If a Tree Falls” (Oscilloscope, 6/22, ?, trailer)
Magic Trip” (Magnolia, 8/5, ?, trailer)
Major Threats
Page One: Inside the New York Times” (Magnolia, 6/24, ?, trailer)
Tabloid” (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
The Interrupters” (The Cinema Guild, ?/?, ?, ?)
Koran by Heart” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Hell and Back Again” (New Video, 10/?, ?, ?)
How to Die in Oregon” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Possibilities
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold” (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975” (Sundance Selects, ?/?, ?, ?)
Pearl Jam Twenty” (Abramorama, 9/?, ?, ?)
Life in a Day” (National Geographic, 7/24, ?, ?)
The Bully Project” (The Weinstein Company, ?/?, ?, ?)
Bobby Fischer Against the World” (HBO Documentary Films, ?/?, ?, ?)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer’s Journey” (Submarine Entertainment, ?/?, ?, ?)
Revenge of the Electric Car” (Westmidwest Productions, ?/?, ?, trailer)
African Cats” (Disney, 4/22, G, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach” (?, ?/?, ?, ?)

Photo: Kate Winslet, Jodie Foster, John C. Reilly, and Christoph Waltz in “Carnage.” Credit: Sony Pictures Classics.

Tags:

  • Artemrakov

    You finally came to your senses that Young Adult doesn’t stand a chance

    • E. murphy

      Why doesn’t it stand a chance?

      I mean, it has an award-baity director, right? And Theron? I dunno, I just thought because of the Juno creators teaming up again…

      • Artemrakov

        The few ppl who have seen it have said that it’s raw, dark and something in the vein of Rachel Getting Married..the Academy will never go for it

        • Anonymous

          But Rachel Getting Married yielded a nomination for Anne Hathaway? I think that Young Adult will either get an actress nod or a screenplay nod. Far too much pedigree attached for it to be completely overlooked.

          • Artemrakov

            Yes, but that’s a VAGUE comparison, its in the vein of Rachel and Greenberg..

  • Eric

    YES KEIRA KNIGHTLEY FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS! She will no doubt shine in A Dangerous Method!!!!

  • Light

    I think you notice to  the rum diary by Bruce Robinson

  • Light

    I think you notice to  the rum diary by Bruce Robinson

    • Eric

      I’m wicked excited for The Rum Diary, with Depp, Eckhart, and Giovanni Ribisi the movie can’t help but be an amazing one. I can’t wait until the trailer comes out!

  • joe

    yes.  Bruce Robinson is a great director  and screen player .after long wait it should be great.

  • mj

    You forgot Mark Strong for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
     

  • phantom

    Albert Nobbs is an adapted screenplay, no ?

    • Marcos

      Yes. it is. And one of the writers is Glenn Close herself. I don’t think it will happen, but if Nobbs were to get an Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations, Glenn would run the risk of receiving a consolation award for writing, paving the way for Streep’s belated third Oscar. In that case, Close had better campaign heavily to reprise her Sunset Boulevard Broadway success on the sceen to get HER Best Actress Oscar. It’s a good thing it will not likely coincide with Streep’s August: Osage County, which might be Streep’s fourth Oscar!

    • Marcos

      Yes. it is. And one of the writers is Glenn Close herself. I don’t think it will happen, but if Nobbs were to get an Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations, Glenn would run the risk of receiving a consolation award for writing, paving the way for Streep’s belated third Oscar. In that case, Close had better campaign heavily to reprise her Sunset Boulevard Broadway success on the sceen to get HER Best Actress Oscar. It’s a good thing it will not likely coincide with Streep’s August: Osage County, which might be Streep’s fourth Oscar!

  • Hussain

    Kirsten Dunst phenomenal in Melancholia – should be upgraded from a mere major threat after her win at Cannes

    • E. murphy

      Yeah, that’s what I don’t really get. I don’t think that the Academy are crazy about Trier (or maybe I’m wrong), but Dunst won Cannes. Does that generally mean a lot?

      Also, I kinda like the fact that Dunst is receiving a mini-career comeback.

  • Nstrain11

    Why has young adult fallen so far?

  • SPS

    Rooney Mara is finally in the frontrunners category! Why now, have you seen any footage from the movie?

  • Marcos

    After watching the trailer for The Help, I am reassured that Viola Davis is a very likely Supporting Actress nominee. And the buzz on Octavia Spencer is very strong.

  • Marcos

    After watching the trailer for The Help, I am reassured that Viola Davis is a very likely Supporting Actress nominee. And the buzz on Octavia Spencer is very strong.

    • E. murphy

      Maybe it’s gonna be like The Secret Life of Bees…

  • Genadijus

    I feel that finally L. di Caprio will will an Oscar for best Leading actor role. He played so much strong, impressive and strong performances comparing to his age. He is one of the best actors of his generation, for sure.

    • PatLang

      Yeah. Nothing against Colin Firth, but he definately deserved to win for Inception.

      • E. murphy

        I thought he was good in Inception, very good, but he did not control the film like, say, Natalie Portman did in Black Swan, if you know what I mean.

        His acting was hardly the show case.

  • Anonymous

    I think you’re being a little optimistic about Albert Nobbs’ chances – beyond Glenn Close landing a nomination, I don’t think it’s a real contender in any of the other categories. Also, I think that at least one member of the Carnage cast will land a nomination – possibly Kate Winslet.

  • Anon

    It has been confirmed that On The Road is not coming out until 2012 so I would remove it from your list cause it sounds like it won’t make the cut.  Just sayin…