FINAL PRE-TELLURIDE/TORONTO PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR CATEGORIES
These projections were composed from the best information available to me at this early date, which is admittedly limited, but which I wanted to share with you nonetheless. Needless to say, there will be many amendments posted over the weeks and months to come, for which I hope you’ll frequently check back!
BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
“The Fighter” (Paramount, 12/10)
“127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight, 11/5, trailer)
“The Social Network” (Columbia, 10/1, trailer)
“Love and Other Drugs” (20th Century Fox, 11/24, trailer)
“Another Year” (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/29, trailer)
“The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company, 11/26)
“True Grit” (Paramount, 12/25)
“Inception” (Warner Brothers, 7/16, trailer)
“The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features, 7/9, trailer)
“Toy Story 3” (Disney, 6/18, trailer)
Major Threats
“Conviction” (Fox Searchlight, 10/15, trailer)
“Hereafter” (Warner Brothers, 10/22)
“Somewhere” (Focus Features, 12/22, trailer)
“Never Let Me Go” (Fox Searchlight, 10/1, trailer)
“Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company, 12/31)
“Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight, 12/1, trailer)
Possibilities
“Secretariat” (Disney, 10/8, trailer)
“Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions, 12/17) NEW
“The Tree of Life” (Apparition, TBD)
“Fair Game” (Summit, TBD, trailer)
“Get Low” (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/30, trailer)
“Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions, 6/11, trailer)
“Miral” (The Weinstein Company, TBD) NEW
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Paramount, 3/26, trailer)
Outside Shots
“How Do You Know” (Columbia, 12/17)
“The Next Three Days” (Lionsgate, 11/19, trailer)
“Morning Glory” (Paramount, 11/12, trailer)
“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” (20th Century Fox, 9/24, trailer)
“The Concert” (The Weinstein Company, 7/30, trailer)
“Made in Dagenham” (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/19, trailer) NEW
“The American” (Focus Features, 9/1, trailer)
Not Happening
“Shutter Island” (Paramount, 2/19, trailer)
“The Ghost Writer” (Summit, 3/19, trailer)
“Eat Pray Love” (Columbia, 8/13, trailer)
“Mother and Child” (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/7, trailer)
“Robin Hood” (Universal, 5/14, trailer)
“Green Zone” (Universal, 3/12, trailer)
“Greenberg” (Focus Features, 3/19, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
“The Conspirator”
“The Debt”
“London Boulevard”
“Rabbit Hole”
“The Way Back”
“What’s Wrong with Virginia”
BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
David O. Russell (“The Fighter”)
Danny Boyle (“127 Hours”)
David Fincher (“The Social Network”)
Edward Zwick (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Mike Leigh (“Another Year”)
Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“True Grit”)
Christopher Nolan (“Inception”)
Lisa Cholodenko (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Lee Unkrich (“Toy Story 3”)
Major Threats
Tony Goldwyn (“Conviction”)
Clint Eastwood (“Hereafter”)
Sofia Coppola (“Somewhere”)
Mark Romanek (“Never Let Me Go”)
Derek Cianfrance (“Blue Valentine”)
Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan”)
Possibilities
Randall Wallace (“Secretariat”)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Biutiful”) NEW
Terence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)
Doug Liman (“Fair Game”)
Aaron Schneider (“Get Low”)
Debra Granik (“Winter’s Bone”)
Julian Schnabel (“Miral”) NEW
Dean Deblois, Chris Sanders (“How to Train Your Dragon”)
Outside Shots
James L. Brooks (“How Do You Know”)
Paul Haggis (“The Next Three Days”)
Roger Michell (“Morning Glory”)
Oliver Stone (“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”)
Radu Mihaileanu (“The Concert”)
Niger Cole (“Made in Dagenham”) NEW
Anton Corbijn (“The American”)
Not Happening
Martin Scorsese (“Shutter Island”)
Roman Polanski (“The Ghost Writer”)
Ryan Murphy (“Eat Pray Love”)
Rodrigo Garcia (“Mother and Child”)
Ridley Scott (“Robin Hood”)
Paul Greengrass (“Green Zone”)
Noah Baumbach (“Greenberg”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Dustin Lance Black (“What’s Wrong with Virginia”)
John Madden (“The Debt”)
John Cameron Mitchell (“Rabbit Hole”)
William Monahan (“London Boulevard”)
Robert Redford (“The Conspirator”)
Peter Weir (“The Way Back”)
BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Mark Wahlberg (“The Fighter”)
Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”)
James Franco (“127 Hours”)
Jake Gyllenhaal (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Ryan Gosling (“Blue Valentine”)
Jeff Bridges (“True Grit”)
Robert Duvall (“Get Low”)
Major Threats
Jim Broadbent (“Another Year”)
Stephen Dorff (“Somewhere”)
Jesse Eisenberg (“The Social Network”)
Sean Penn (“The Tree of Life”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Inception”)
Possibilities
Javier Bardem (“Biutiful”) NEW
Matt Damon (“Hereafter”)
Sean Penn (“Fair Game”)
Michael Douglas (“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”)
Andy Serkis (“Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll”)
Outside Shots
Russell Crowe (“The Next Three Days”)
Harrison Ford (“Morning Glory”)
George Clooney (“The American”)
Not Happening
Michael Douglas (“Solitary Man”)
Russell Crowe (“Robin Hood”)
Matt Damon (“Green Zone”)
Ben Stiller (“Greenberg”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Colin Farrell (“London Boulevard”)
Clive Owen (“Trust”)
Kevin Spacey (“Casino Jack”)
Jim Sturgess (“The Way Back”)
BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Anne Hathaway (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Lesley Manville (“Another Year”)
Hilary Swank (“Conviction”)
Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Julianne Moore (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Carey Mulligan (“Never Let Me Go”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Winter’s Bone”)
Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (“Fair Game”)
Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”)
Diane Lane (“Secretariat”)
Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”)
Possibilities
Sally Hawkins (“Made in Dagenham”) NEW
Bryce Dallas Howard (“Hereafter”)
Diane Keaton (“Morning Glory”)
Helen Mirren (“The Tempest”) NEW
Reese Witherspoon (“How Do You Know”)
Tilda Swinton (“I Am Love”)
Outside Shots
Elizabeth Banks (“The Next Three Days”)
Melanie Laurent (“The Concert”)
Patricia Clarkson (“Cairo Time”)
Not Happening
Annette Bening (“Mother and Child”)
Julia Roberts (“Eat Pray Love”)
Greta Gerwig (“Greenberg”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Jennifer Connelly (“What’s Wrong with Virginia”)
Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”)
Keira Knightley (“London Boulevard”)
Robin Wright (“The Conspirator”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christian Bale (“The Fighter”)
Geoffrey Rush (“The King’s Speech”)
Sam Rockwell (“Conviction”)
Andrew Garfield (“The Social Network”)
Mark Ruffalo (“The Kids Are All Right”)
John Malkovich (“Secretariat”)
Major Threats
Jack Nicholson (“How Do You Know”)
Josh Brolin (“True Grit”)
Josh Brolin (“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”)
Bob Hoskins (“Made in Dagenham”) NEW
Possibilities
Brad Pitt (“The Tree of Life”)
Vincent Cassel (“Black Swan”) NEW
Andrew Garfield (“Never Let Me Go”)
Outside Shots
Bill Murray (“Get Low”)
Richard Jenkins (“Eat Pray Love”) NEW
Not Happening
Mark Ruffalo (“Shutter Island”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Colin Farrell (“The Way Back”)
Ed Harris (“The Way Back”)
Ed Harris (“What’s Wrong with Virginia”)
James McAvoy (“The Conspirator”)
Miles Teller (“Rabbit Hole”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Keira Knightley (“Never Let Me Go”)
Elle Fanning (“Somewhere”)
Kristin Scott Thomas (“Nowhere Boy”)
Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”) NEW
Hailee Steinfeld (“True Grit”)
Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (“The Tree of Life”)
Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)
Anne-Marie Duff (“Nowhere Boy”)
Possibilities
Mila Kunis (“Black Swan”)
Sissy Spacek (“Get Low”)
Amy Adams (“The Fighter”)
Barbara Hershey (“Black Swan”)
Winona Ryder (“Black Swan”)
Outside Shots
Juliette Lewis (“Conviction”)
Rebecca Hall (“The Town”)
Thekla Reuten (“The American”)
Dale Dickey (“Winter’s Bone”)
Not Happening
Mia Wasikowska (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Cate Blanchett (“Robin Hood”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Alexis Bledel (“The Conspirator”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“The Conspirator”)
Andrea Riseborough (“Brighton Rock”)
Saoirse Ronan (“The Way Back”)
Dianne Wiest (“Rabbit Hole”)
BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
“Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work” (IFC Films)
“Waiting for Superman” (Paramount Vantage)
“Inside Job” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Tillman Story” (The Weinstein Company)
“Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer” (Magnolia)
“Restrepo” (National Geographic)
“Countdown to Zero” (Magnolia)
“Casino Jack and the United States of Money” (Magnolia)
Major Threats
“A Film Unfinished” (Oscilloscope)
“Exit Through the Gift Shop” (Producers Distribution Agency)
“Waste Land” (Arthouse Films)
“The Oath” (Zeitgeist Films)
“Smash His Camera” (Magnolia)
“Bhutto” (First Run Features)
Possibilities
“Babies” (Focus Features)
“GasLand” (HBO Films)
“12th & Delaware” (HBO Films)
“Hugh Hefner: Playboy, Activist, and Rebel” (Phase 4 Films)
“8: The Mormon Proposition” (Red Flag Releasing)
“Freakonomics” (Magnolia)
“Waking Sleeping Beauty” (Disney)
Outside Shots
“South of the Border” (Cinema Libre Studio)
“Winnebago Man” (Kino International)
“Best Worst Movie” (Abramorama)
“Rush: Beyond the Lighted Stage” (D&E Entertainment)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
“Lucky”
“My Perestroika”
“The People vs. George Lucas”
“A Small Act”
“Tabloid”
Photo: James Franco in Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours” Credit: Fox Searchlight.
Tags: Projections