Talking Movies, Episode 6: ‘Safety Last!,’ ‘The General’ and ‘City Lights’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 5: ‘The Last Picture Show,’ ‘Mean Streets’ and ‘The Conversation’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 4: ‘Bonnie and Clyde,’ ‘Easy Rider’ and ‘The Wild Bunch’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 3: ‘Marty,’ ‘The Bridge on the River Kwai’ and ‘Ben-Hur’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 2: ‘The Lost Weekend,’ ‘The Best Years of Our Lives’ and ‘Gentleman’s Agreement’ ... Alfred Hitchcock and ‘The 39 Steps’ ... Talking Movies, Episode 1: ‘The Third Man’ (1949) ... Akira Kurosawa – ‘Ran’ (1985) ...
Countdown to Oscars

Wednesday, December 29, 2010
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FLASH: FINAL DECEMBER FORECAST

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Social Network” (Columbia, 10/1, PG-13, trailer)
The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company, 11/26, R, trailer)
The Fighter (Paramount, 12/10, R, trailer)
Inception” (Warner Brothers, 7/16, PG-13, trailer)
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight, 12/1, R, trailer)
The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features, 7/9, R, trailer)
True Grit” (Paramount, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight, 11/5, R, trailer)
Toy Story 3” (Disney, 6/18, G, trailer)

Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company, 12/29, R, trailer)

Major Threats
Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions, 6/11, R, trailer)
The Town” (Warner Brothers, 9/17, R, trailer)
The Ghost Writer” (Summit, 2/19, PG-13, trailer)
Shutter Island” (Paramount, 2/19, R, trailer)
Somewhere” (Focus Features, 12/22, R, trailer)
Another Year” (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/31, PG-13, trailer)
Rabbit Hole” (Lionsgate, 12/17, TBD, trailer)
Possibilities
Waiting for ‘Superman’” (Paramount Vantage, 9/24, PG, trailer)
Inside Job” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/8, PG-13, trailer)
Secretariat” (Disney, 10/8, PG, trailer)
Get Low” (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/30, PG-13, trailer)
Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions, 12/29, R, trailer)
Alice in Wonderland” (Disney, 3/5, PG, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper
(
The King’s Speech)
David O. Russell
(“The Fighter)
Christopher Nolan
(“Inception”)
Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan”)
Major Threats
Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right”)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“True Grit”)
Danny Boyle (“127 Hours”)
Roman Polanski (“The Ghost Writer”)
Martin Scorsese (“Shutter Island”)
Mike Leigh (“Another Year”)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Biutiful”)
Possibilities
Derek Cianfrance (“Blue Valentine”)
Debra Granik (“Winter’s Bone”)
Sofia Coppola (“Somewhere”)
Ben Affleck (“The Town”)
John Cameron Mitchell (“Rabbit Hole”)
Lee Unkrich
(“Toy Story 3”)
Peter Weir (“The Way Back”)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco
(
127 Hours)
Jesse Eisenberg (“The Social Network”)
Robert Duvall (“Get Low”)
Mark Wahlberg (“The Fighter”)

Major Threats
Ryan Gosling (“Blue Valentine”)
Jeff Bridges (“True Grit”)
Javier Bardem (“Biutiful”)
Michael Douglas (“Solitary Man”)
Stephen Dorff
(“Somewhere”)
Possibilities
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Shutter Island”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Inception”)
Kevin Spacey (“Casino Jack”)
Jake Gyllenhaal (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Ewan McGregor (“The Ghost Writer”) NEW
Ben Affleck (“The Town”)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”)
Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Winter’s Bone”)
Nicole Kidman
(“Rabbit Hole”)
Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”)
Major Threats
Hilary Swank (“Conviction”)
Julianne Moore (“The Kids Are All Right”)
Lesley Manville (“Another Year”)
Tilda Swinton (“I Am Love”)
Halle Berry (“Frankie and Alice”)
Possibilities
Anne Hathaway (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Sally Hawkins (“Made in Dagenham”)
Diane Lane (“Secretariat”)
Gwyneth Paltrow (“Country Strong”)
Naomi Watts (“Fair Game”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Mark Ruffalo
(“The Kids Are All Right”)
Jeremy Renner (“The Town”)
Andrew Garfield (“The Social Network”)

Major Threats
Michael Douglas (“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”)
John Hawkes (“Winter’s Bone”)
Sam Rockwell (“Conviction”)
Matt Damon (“True Grit”)
Vincent Cassel (“Black Swan”)
Possibilities
Pierce Brosnan (“The Ghost Writer”) NEW
Justin Timberlake (“The Social Network”)
Armie Hammer (“The Social Network”)
Bill Murray (“Get Low”)
Ed Harris (“The Way Back”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Hailee Steinfeld (“True Grit”)
Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”)
Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)
Amy Adams
(“The Fighter”)
Mila Kunis (“Black Swan”)

Major Threats
Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”)
Sissy Spacek (“Get Low”)
Barbara Hershey
(“Black Swan”)
Miranda Richardson (“Made in Dagenham”)
Dianne Wiest (“Rabbit Hole”)
Possibilities
Juliette Lewis
(“Conviction”)
Olivia Williams (“The Ghost Writer“)
Kirsten Dunst (“All Good Things”)
Elle Fanning
(“Somewhere”)
Rooney Mara (“The Social Network”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Aaron Sorkin (“The Social Network)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (“True Grit)
Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle (“127 Hours)
Michael Arndt (“Toy Story 3)
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini (“Winter’s Bone”)
Major Threats
Robert Harris, Roman Polanski (“The Ghost Writer”)
Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, Aaron Stockard (“The Town”)
David Lindsay-Abaire (“Rabbit Hole”)
Laeta Kalogridas (“Shutter Island”)
Possibilities
Michael Konyves (“Barney’s Version”)
William Davies, Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders (“How to Train Your Dragon”)
Marshall Herskovitz, Charles Randolph, Edward Zwick (“Love and Other Drugs”)
Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth (“Fair Game”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
David Seidler (“The King’s Speech)
Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg (“The Kids Are All Right
)
Christopher Nolan (“Inception)
Andres Heinz, Mark Heyman, John J. McLaughlin (“Black Swan)
Mike Leigh
(“Another Year”)
Major Threats
Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy (“The Fighter”)
Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne (“Blue Valentine”)
Armando Bo, Nicolas Giacobone, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Biutiful”)
Sofia Coppola (“Somewhere”)
Possibilities
Chris Provenzano, C. Gaby Mitchell (“Get Low”)
John Wells (“The Company Men”)
William Ivory (“Made in Dagenham”)
Barbara Alberti, Ivan Cotroneo, Walter Fasano, Luca Guadagnino (“I Am Love”)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Toy Story 3” (Disney, 6/18, G, trailer)
How to Train Your Dragon” (Paramount, 3/26, PG, trailer)
Tangled
” (Disney, 11/24, PG, trailer)
Major Threats

The Illusionist” (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, PG, trailer)
Despicable Me” (Universal, 7/9, PG, trailer)
Megamind” (Paramount, 11/5, PG, trailer)
Shrek Forever After” (Dreamworks, 5/21, PG, trailer)
Alpha and Omega” (Lionsgate, 9/17, PG, trailer)
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole” (Warner Brothers, 9/24, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue” (Disney, 9/21, G, trailer)
My Dog Tulip” (New Yorker Films, 9/1, NR, trailer)
Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore” (Warner Brothers, 7/30, NR, trailer)
Idiots and Angels” (?, 10/29, NR, trailer)
The Dreams of Jinsha” (Abramarama, 12/3, NR, trailer)
Summer Wars” (FUNimation Entertainment, 12/10, NR, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Inside Job” (Sony Pictures Classics, 10/8, PG-13, trailer)
Waiting for ‘Superman’” (Paramount Vantage, 9/24, PG, trailer)
Exit Through the Gift Shop” (Producers Distribution Agency, 4/16, NR, trailer)
Waste Land” (Arthouse, 10/29, NR, trailer)
The Tillman Story” (The Weinstein Company, 8/20, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer” (Magnolia, 11/5, R, trailer)
Restrepo” (National Geographic, 6/25, R, trailer)
Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould” (Lorber Films, 9/10, NR, trailer)
The Lottery” (Variance Films, 6/18, NR, trailer)
William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe” (Arthouse Films, 11/13, NR, trailer)
Possibilities
GasLand” (HBO Films, 6/?, NR, trailer)
Precious Life” (HBO Films, ?/?, NR, trailer)
Enemies of the People” (International Film Circuit, 7/30, NR, trailer)
Quest for Honor” (?, ?/?, ?, NR, trailer)
This Way of Life” (?, ?/?, NR, trailer)

Photo: Vincent Cassel and Natalie Portman in “Black Swan.” Credit: Fox Searchlight.

http://scottfeinberg.com/tag/

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  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000467555057 Robert Hamer

    The idea that there’s a sizable number of people out there who believe Mila Kunis is better than Jacki Weaver…I mean, I know I have to respect other opinions, but I just can’t take that one seriously…

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Pretend you never saw her or knew that she had been associated with “That ’70s Show” or “Family Guy,” since that’s how most Oscar voters will be approaching her candidacy — I bet you’d think more highly of her under those circumstances.

  • Joe

    Same with Kirsten Dunst in All Good Things. She was eons better than Kunis.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Not sure I’d go that far, but Dunst was very good too!

  • Gerold

    You are still very much underestimating Never Let Me Go. It has received many top 10 mentions and “Most Overlooked Film of the Year” awards. It is above Secretariat and many others you have in your best picture list.

    • http://twitter.com/mikhaelmt Mikhael Tarigan

      i’m with you.

  • Yim Yames

    Did he ever see Somewhere? It’s not Oscar worthy at all.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Yes, I saw it. And people said the same thing about “Lost in Translation” — before it snagged several Oscar nominations.

  • Madskl

    winter´s bone is perhaps the second most revered film this year among critics, I would assume it is secured a BP nomination!! Besides: John Hawkes is coming on strong and gains momentum day by day; I think he is almost a lock for a nomination…just saying…

  • Housda9

    I completely agree with all of this except MAYBE the inclusion of Mark Wahlberg. Great job again, Feinberg.

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      Thanks man!

  • Immelc

    Somewhere was a great choice, very poetic and atmospheric film that makes audiences look beyond the surface. Not enough of that coming from Hollywood these days, unfortunately.

  • Gustavo

    I see no reason to believe Mark Wahlberg will come out of nowhere and snag a nomination for Best Actor. Jeff Bridges in True Grit is a much safer bet. Never mind that he just won.