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Thursday, December 16, 2010
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WHAT THIS WEEK’S HFPA AND SAG NODS MEAN–AND DON’T–IN TERMS OF OSCAR

Over the past decade, there have been 14 performances nominated by both HFPA and SAG but not nominated by the Academy (one or two a year, on average):

  1. Hayden Christensen (“Life as a House,” 2001) for best supporting actor
  2. Cameron Diaz (“Vanilla Sky,” 2001) for best supporting actress
  3. Cate Blanchett (“Bandits,” 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
  4. Richard Gere (“Chicago,” 2002) for best actor
  5. Dennis Quaid (“Far From Heaven,” 2002) for best supporting actor
  6. Evan Rachel Wood (“Thirteen,” 2003) for best actress
  7. Maria Bello (“The Cooler,” 2003) for best supporting actress
  8. Paul Giamatti (“Sideways,” 2004) for best actor
  9. Russell Crowe (“Cinderella Man,” 2005) for best actor
  10. Ziyi Zhang (“Memoirs of a Geisha,” 2005) for best actress
  11. Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Departed,” 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
  12. Ryan Gosling (“Lars and the Real Girl,” 2007) for best actor
  13. Angelina Jolie (“A Mighty Heart,” 2007) for best actress
  14. Kate Winslet (“Revolutionary Road,” 2008) for best actress

*HFPA nominated for lead; SAG nominated for supporting

Over the past deacde, there have been 11 performances nominated by neither HFPA nor SAG but still nominated by AMPAS (one a year, on average):

  1. Samantha Morton (“In America,” 2003) for best actress
  2. Djimon Hounsou (“In America,” 2003) for best supporting actor
  3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (“House of Sand and Fog,” 2003) for best supporting actress
  4. Marcia Gay Harden (“Mystic River,” 2003) for best supporting actress
  5. Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby,” 2004) for best actor
  6. Alan Alda (“The Aviator,” 2004) for best supporting actor
  7. William Hurt (“A History of Violence,” 2005) for best supporting actor
  8. Tommy Lee Jones (“In the Valley of Elah,” 2007) for best actor
  9. Laura Linney (“The Savages,” 2007) for best actress
  10. Michael Shannon (“Revolutionary Road,” 2008) for best supporting actor
  11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (“Crazy Heart,” 2009) for best supporting actress

Considering those numbers, today’s SAG nominations represent…

GOOD NEWS for 2010 performances nominated by both HFPA and SAG (although, based on history, one or two of the following still will not get an Academy nod):

  • Jesse Eisenberg (“The Social Network”) for best actor
  • Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”) for best actor
  • James Franco (“127 Hours”) for best actor
  • Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”) for best actress
  • Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”) for best actress
  • Jennifer Lawrence (“Winter’s Bone”) for best actress
  • Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”) for best actress
  • Christian Bale (“The Fighter”) for best supporting actor
  • Jeremy Renner (“The Town”) for best supporting actor
  • Geoffrey Rush (“The King’s Speech”) for best supporting actor
  • Amy Adams (“The Fighter”) for best supporting actress
  • Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”) for best supporting actress
  • Mila Kunis (“Black Swan”) for best supporting actress
  • Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”) for best supporting actress

BAD NEWS for 2010 performances nominated by neither HFPA nor SAG (although, based on history, one or two of the following still will get an Academy nod):

  • Ben Affleck (“The Town”) for best actor
  • Javier Bardem (“Biutiful”) for best actor
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (“Inception”) for best actor
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (“Shutter Island”) for best actor
  • Stephen Dorff (“Somewhere”) for best actor
  • Michael Douglas (“Solitary Man”) for best actor
  • Sally Hawkins (“Made in Dagenham”) for best actress
  • Diane Lane (“Secretariat”) for best actress
  • Lesley Manville (“Another Year”) for best actress
  • Gwyneth Paltrow (“Country Strong”) for best actress
  • Noomi Rapace (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”) for best actress
  • Tilda Swinton (“I Am Love”) for best actress
  • Naomi Watts (“Fair Game”) for best actress
  • Jim Broadbent (“Another Year”) for best supporting actor
  • Vincent Cassel (“Black Swan”) for best supporting actor
  • Matt Damon (“True Grit”) for best supporting actor
  • Armie Hammer (“The Social Network”) for best supporting actor
  • Ed Harris (“The Way Back”) for best supporting actor
  • Bill Murray (“Get Low”) for best supporting actor
  • Sam Rockwell (“Conviction”) for best supporting actor
  • Justin Timberlake (“The Social Network”) for best supporting actor
  • Kirsten Dunst (“All Good Things”) for best supporting actress
  • Elle Fanning (“Somewhere”) for best supporting actress
  • Rebecca Hall (“The Town”) for best supporting actress
  • Barbara Hershey (“Black Swan”) for best supporting actress
  • Juliette Lewis (“Conviction”) for best supporting actress
  • Rooney Mara (“The Social Network”) for best supporting actress
  • Miranda Richardson (“Made in Dagenham”) for best supporting actress
  • Sissy Spacek (“Get Low”) for best supporting actress
  • Dianne Wiest (“Rabbit Hole”) for best supporting actress
  • Olivia Williams (“The Ghost Writer”) for best supporting actress

MIXED NEWS for 2010 performances nominated for either HFPA or SAG, but not both (based on history, the numbers fluctuate greatly in terms of how many still will get an Academy nod):

  • Jeff Bridges (“True Grit”) for best actor
  • Johnny Depp (“Alice in Wonderland”) for best actor
  • Johnny Depp (“The Tourist”) for best actor
  • Robert Duvall (“Get Low”) for best actor
  • Paul Giamatti (“Barney’s Version”) for best actor
  • Ryan Gosling (“Blue Valentine”) for best actor
  • Jake Gyllenhaal (“Love and Other Drugs”) for best actor
  • Kevin Spacey (“Casino Jack”) for best actor
  • Mark Wahlberg (“The Fighter”) for best actor
  • Halle Berry (“Frankie and Alice”) for best actress
  • Anne Hathaway (“Love and Other Drugs”) for best actress
  • Angelina Jolie (“The Tourist”) for best actress
  • Julianne Moore (“The Kids Are All Right”) for best actress
  • Emma Stone (“Easy A”) for best actress
  • Hilary Swank (“Conviction”) for best actress
  • Michelle Williams (“Blue Valentine”) for best actress
  • Michael Douglas (“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”) for best supporting actor
  • Andrew Garfield (“The Social Network”) for best supporting actor
  • John Hawkes (“Winter’s Bone”) for best supporting actor
  • Mark Ruffalo (“The Kids Are All Right”) for best supporting actor
  • Hailee Steinfeld (“True Grit”) for best supporting actress
  • Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”) for best supporting actress

Photo: John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone.” Credit: Roadside Attractions.

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  • Vickiego

    How many of the 11 nominated for the Oscar (2nd list) actually won it?

    • http://ScottFeinberg.com Scott Feinberg

      None. Indeed, over the 16 years leading up to this year in which both HFPA and SAG existed, only ONE person has EVER been nominated for AND won an Oscar without first being nominated by either of those other two groups: Marcia Gay Harden for POLLOCK (2000).

  • Nick Rogers

    If I had to guess, I’d say the two from the GOOD NEWS list that don’t get noms are Kunis and Renner. If not Renner, then Adams. The two from the BAD NEWS list that get noms: Bardem and Wiest. If not Bardem, then Rockwell. On the MIXED NEWS list, there are easily 5 that SHOULD get noms: Gosling, Williams, Garfield, Hawkes, Weaver.

  • http://twitter.com/MichaelHeister Michael Heister

    Scott – With respect, I don’t think the HFPA’s are taken seriously by anyone in the industry who has an AMPAS vote, and I seriously doubt there’s more than a handful of guild members – even in SAG – who are snookered into thinking the Golden Globes are anything but an excuse to get shitfaced at a public party and garner some publicity for yourself or your movie/TV show.